About
In the 2024 U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, Guidant served as chief strategist and pollster to Keystone Renewal PAC, the largest candidate-specific Super PAC in Congressional history. Our goal: help Dave McCormick unseat Senator Bob Casey, an 18-year incumbent backed by a well-funded political machine. With more than $60 million raised and spent, Keystone Renewal was central to one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested races in the country. Guidant developed and executed the Super PAC’s full campaign strategy—from voter modeling and polling to creative testing and media targeting—delivering a data-driven effort that helped make victory possible.
Challenge
McCormick entered the race with major structural disadvantages. Senator Casey was a three-term incumbent with strong name ID, millions in the bank, and support from national Democratic groups. By contrast, Keystone Renewal faced:
- A 2-to-1 spending disadvantage against Casey and his allies.
- The pressure of competing in one of the most expensive media markets in the country.
- A fast-closing window to define McCormick before voters were bombarded with presidential election messaging.
With slim margins and no room for error, every dollar had to be used with precision. The Super PAC had to build a strategy capable of shifting public perception and cutting through media saturation in a state that rarely sees Senate incumbents lose.
Solution
Guidant led Keystone Renewal’s strategy by flipping the traditional Super PAC playbook. Rather than wait until fall to begin advertising, we identified an opportunity to act early—launching positive ads immediately after the GOP primary, when rates were lower and voters were most open to learning about McCormick. This bold move defined the candidate on favorable terms before Democrats could.
We also:
- Used data modeling to identify a persuasion universe of ~1 million key voters, then shaped all voter contact – TV, digital, streaming, radio – around that core audience.
- Customized messaging by region, using polling to match content with what moved voters in each area (e.g., economic themes in Philadelphia, immigration in rural counties).
- Tested and refined creative through A/B and dial testing, ultimately leaning into testimonial-style advertising, even for contrast spots—a rarity for SuperPACs.
- Featured real Pennsylvanians in ads to bring authenticity and credibility to the campaign, with positive spots highlighting McCormick’s military background and negative ones casting Casey as out of touch.
The result was a campaign that maximized efficiency, disrupted Democratic strategy, and sustained GOP momentum through the most critical stretch of the race.
Results
On Election Day, Dave McCormick defeated Bob Casey by just 15,115 votes – the narrowest margin of any Senate race in 2024. That razor-thin win was made possible by Keystone Renewal’s early and sustained voter engagement, innovative ad strategy, and disciplined execution.
By redefining what a Super PAC could do, Guidant helped deliver one of the most impactful and efficient independent expenditure efforts in modern Senate campaign history. Keystone Renewal not only flipped a Senate seat—it set a new standard for strategic innovation in the Super PAC space.